INESC TEC researcher wins Vestas Award with renewable energy forecasting solution

How can we improve renewable energy forecasts without undermining competitiveness between companies? Luís Rodrigues, researcher at INESC TEC, seems to have an answer – and his idea has been recognised with the Vestas Award for best master’s thesis.

The winning work focuses on developing a collaborative forecasting system that improves the estimation of renewable energy production, which is highly dependent on atmospheric conditions.

“Accurate forecasts are essential to reducing uncertainty and supporting electricity system operations. It has already been proven that combining data from multiple locations improves forecast quality, as weather phenomena propagate across space. However, the companies that hold this data are often in direct competition, meaning that sharing information may represent a competitive disadvantage,” explained Luís Rodrigues.

The solution? A system of monetary incentives within a collaboration framework developed by INESC TEC, where each participant is compensated in proportion to the actual impact their data has on improving the forecasts.

“This makes collaboration fairer and, consequently, more appealing. It’s a step forward that could change the way actors in the energy sector cooperate and operate,” he added.

The solution uses technologies such as blockchain and zero-knowledge proofs, which allow contributions to be validated, and compensations processed while ensuring privacy and trust between parties – critical factors in a competitive environment. The system directly benefits renewable energy producers, who can collaborate without losing competitive advantage, and indirectly benefits the system operator and consumers, who become reliant on a more stable and efficient energy system.

This recognition highlights the work developed at INESC TEC, reinforcing the visibility and credibility of the research, facilitating dissemination, and paving the way for future collaborations or developments, particularly in the field of energy transition. “Throughout a thesis, it’s natural to question the real impact of the work being done, so seeing the project recognised externally is highly motivating.”

Promoted by Vestas, the award distinguishes a recent master’s graduate in Electrical and Computer Engineering, Informatics and Computing Engineering, or Mechanical Engineering.