Smart4RES presents new solutions to further predict and integrate renewable production in the power system and electricity markets

Renewable energy sources are crucial to the decarbonisation of the economy, but their integration into the power system requires a change in the operating and planning model. The recently concluded Smart4RES project led to improvements in the forecasting of renewable production, and it will support the decision-making of power system operators and market agents, under uncertainty and risk.


For three and a half years, the research activities aimed at creating the next generation of modelling and short-term forecasting tools for renewable-based electricity production and developing new decision support methodologies – based on Artificial Intelligence and human operator interaction – that seek to revolutionise, or at least leverage the energy system of the next decade. Combining different areas, like meteorology, operational research, data science, energy systems, etc., the project focused on exploring new decision support methodologies.

In particular, the Smart4RES project consortium – featuring INESC TEC and EDP NEW as national partners – aimed to achieve an increase of at least 15% in the performance of the renewable production forecasting, while leveraging its economic value, considering the entire value chain (from the weather forecast to the final applications).

“Considering these objectives, INESC TEC worked on the development of new algorithms and concepts for the forecasting of renewable energy production. The starting point was a set of disruptive ideas that challenged the current state of the art”, said Ricardo Bessa, researcher at INESC TEC Centre for Power and Energy Systems (CPES).

Moreover, the project also focused on the development of a patented protocol for renewable energy forecasting that allows different data owners to work collaboratively, improving the accuracy of forecasting between 5% and 12% – for a time horizon of up to 48 hours. “We have also developed algorithms for data monetisation (video with prototype) of renewable energy production and numerical weather forecasts, using blockchain technology”, added the researcher. Smart4RES also promoted the creation of predictive methodologies for isolated power systems (islands) with high integration of renewable production, considering the dispatch of synchronous compensators and contracting, and the activation of flexibility within the gird – based on information from probabilistic forecasts of renewable production and consumption.

At the final conference of the project, which took place in April, INESC TEC researchers Ricardo Bessa and Carla Gonçalves (whose PhD thesis developed within the scope of the project received the EDP Labelec Merit Award 2022) presented some of these tools, which will support distribution network operators and transmission system operators, system operators, market and renewable-based production facilities and digital service providers.


The researchers mentioned in this news piece are associated with INESC TEC.

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